Updated September 2026
Online shopping keeps taking a bigger share of retail worldwide, but the 2026 story is steady growth, new sales channels and tighter rules rather than pandemic-style surges. Here is where the global eCommerce market stands, what is driving it, how the UAE and wider GCC fit in, and what it all means for online store owners.
Key takeaways
- Global retail eCommerce is forecast to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, about 21.1% of all retail sales (EMARKETER).
- Growth has settled at around 7% a year worldwide, with Latin America, India and Southeast Asia among the fastest-growing regions.
- Digital wallets accounted for 56% of global eCommerce spending in 2025, and buy now, pay later is forecast to reach $500 billion by 2030.
- AI shopping assistants and “agentic” checkout moved from demos to live products in 2025 and 2026.
- Cross-border selling is getting more expensive as the US and EU remove duty exemptions on low-value parcels.
- The UAE’s eCommerce market is estimated at $8.1 billion in 2025 and is growing 10–15% a year.
How big is the global eCommerce market in 2026?
EMARKETER’s forecast, as published by Shopify, puts worldwide retail eCommerce sales at $6.42 trillion in 2025 (up 6.8%), rising to $6.88 trillion in 2026, $7.38 trillion in 2027 and $7.89 trillion in 2028. Online’s share of total retail climbs from 20.5% in 2025 to 22.5% in 2028.
That average hides a big gap. EMARKETER expected 2025 to be the first year eCommerce passed 20% of retail worldwide, but without China the figure falls to 12.8%. China and the US dominate: ECDB estimates their 2025 online sales of physical goods at $2.04 trillion and $1.08 trillion, with the UK a distant third at $177 billion. We rank the full top 10 in our guide to the largest eCommerce markets in the world.
The latest official data shows mature markets still moving. US eCommerce sales rose 12.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 to 17.1% of retail. The UK’s online share reached 28.8% in August 2026. In China, online sales of physical goods grew 5.2% in 2025 and made up 26.1% of consumer retail sales.
Where the growth is coming from
- Latin America: retail eCommerce is set to grow 12.2% to $191.25 billion in 2025, about 1.5 times the global rate.
- India: e-retail GMV grew an estimated 19–21% to $65–66 billion in 2025, with nearly 300 million annual shoppers.
- Southeast Asia: eCommerce GMV is projected at $185 billion in 2025, with video commerce making up about 25% of it.
- Europe: growth is slower but steady. German online goods sales rose 3.2% in 2025, and French online product sales grew 4%.
Growth drivers to watch
Mobile checkout and digital wallets
Digital wallets are now the leading way to pay online worldwide. In the US, wallets were used in 40% of eCommerce transactions in 2025, more than credit cards at 32%. Mobile-first markets go further: mobile made up 77% of South Korea’s eCommerce sales in 2025, and 58.7% of Japan’s online goods sales were made by smartphone. If your checkout still starts with a long card form, you are losing sales.
Social and video commerce
Shoppable video is now a core channel, not an experiment. In Indonesia, video commerce is the fastest-growing catalyst behind eCommerce GMV growing more than 14% to $71 billion in 2025. ECDB lists TikTok Shop among the top three online retailers in both China and Indonesia. For brands selling to the US and UK, that means creator content, TikTok Shop and short-form video ads belong in the plan alongside Meta and Google.
Cross-border trade, with tighter rules
Cross-border selling is still open, but cheap direct-from-supplier parcels are losing their tax advantage. As of 2026:
- The US ended duty-free de minimis treatment for shipments from every country on August 29, 2025, regardless of value.
- The EU abolished its €150 customs duty exemption and applies a temporary €3 duty to low-value parcels from July 1, 2026, with a handling fee to follow by November 1, 2026.
- The UK requires overseas sellers to charge VAT at checkout on direct sales of consignments worth £135 or less.
Build duties and taxes into your pricing, and consider stock in or near your main markets.
AI shopping assistants and agentic checkout
AI assistants can now find products and, increasingly, complete the purchase. In September 2025, OpenAI and Stripe launched Instant Checkout in ChatGPT for US shoppers, starting with Etsy sellers, and published the open Agentic Commerce Protocol. That same month Google announced its Agent Payments Protocol with more than 60 partners, and in November 2025 it rolled out agentic checkout in the US with merchants such as Wayfair, Chewy and select Shopify stores. Amazon’s assistant Rufus was renamed Alexa for Shopping in May 2026. Clean product data, detailed descriptions and genuine reviews now help you get recommended by machines as well as people.
Marketplaces and faster delivery
Marketplaces keep gaining ground. In Germany they handled 56% of online goods sales in 2025, and Chinese platforms such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress grew 27.2% there. Delivery expectations are rising too: India’s quick commerce segment, which promises delivery in minutes, reached an estimated $10–11 billion in 2025, or 16–17% of eCommerce GMV. For independent brands, the answer is usually both: a strong own store plus selective marketplace listings, such as Amazon.
Flexible and instant payments
Buy now, pay later is forecast to reach $500 billion of global eCommerce value by 2030. Instant account-to-account payments are growing too: India’s UPI processed 24.51 billion transactions in August 2026, and markets such as India and Brazil are led by bank-linked payments rather than cards.
Privacy and measurement
Google confirmed in October 2025 that Chrome will keep its current approach to third-party cookies and retire most Privacy Sandbox technologies. On iPhone, apps still need permission through App Tracking Transparency to track users. First-party data and server-side tracking remain the foundation of reliable reporting; see our guide to conversion tracking.
The UAE and GCC eCommerce market
The Gulf is small next to the global giants, but it is growing quickly. ECDB estimates UAE online sales of physical goods at $8.1 billion in 2025, up 10–15%, with a similar pace expected in 2026. Electronics is the largest category at 34%, and Amazon, Noon and Carrefour are the leading retailers. That is broadly in line with the $8 billion that Dubai Chamber had forecast for 2025, as reported by the US Commercial Service.
Saudi Arabia is larger, at an estimated $11.4 billion in 2025, and also growing 10–15%. eCommerce makes up about 10% of Saudi retail sales and is expected to exceed 25% by 2035, with local platforms such as Salla and Zid alongside Amazon and Noon.
Several things support growth in the region:
- Connected consumers: almost the entire UAE population has internet and mobile access.
- Flexible payments: BNPL providers such as Tabby and Tamara let shoppers split purchases into four payments.
- Business infrastructure: free zones such as Dubai CommerCity, which is dedicated to digital commerce, and a simple VAT system at 5%, with mandatory registration once taxable supplies and imports exceed AED 375,000 a year.
Challenges remain: the US Commercial Service still lists a preference for cash on delivery, logistics gaps and address issues among the barriers. Offer trusted local payment options and clear delivery promises.
WIMS Global’s role
WIMS Global LLC is an eCommerce growth agency based in Sharjah Media City, UAE, with more than seven years of digital marketing experience. We build and optimize Shopify stores and run paid social, Google, TikTok, email and SMS, SEO and Amazon marketing for online brands. Most of our clients sell to customers in the US, UK and EU, and being based in the UAE means we follow the Gulf market closely too.
What this means for your online store
- Plan for single-digit market growth. Your growth has to come from better conversion, retention and new channels, not just a rising tide.
- Make checkout fast. Offer the wallets and BNPL options your customers already use.
- Invest in video. Short-form video and creator content drive discovery on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube.
- Price for duties and taxes. Recalculate landed costs for every market you ship to.
- Get your product data ready for AI. Complete, accurate product feeds and reviews feed Google Shopping, marketplaces and AI assistants alike.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the global eCommerce market in 2026?
EMARKETER forecasts worldwide retail eCommerce sales of $6.88 trillion in 2026, up about 7% on 2025.
What share of retail sales happens online?
About 21.1% worldwide in 2026, rising to 22.5% by 2028. The share varies widely by country, from 17.1% in the US to 28.8% in the UK.
Which region is growing fastest?
Latin America, where retail eCommerce is growing about 1.5 times faster than the global average. India’s e-retail market (up 19–21% in 2025) and Indonesia (up more than 14%) are also growing at double-digit rates.
How big is eCommerce in the UAE?
ECDB estimates UAE online sales of physical goods at $8.1 billion in 2025, growing 10–15% a year, with electronics as the largest category.
Whether you sell to the US, UK, EU or the Gulf, the brands that win in 2026 combine a fast store with smart acquisition and retention. WIMS Global can help with Shopify store design and development, paid social and email and SMS marketing. Book a free digital audit to see where your store stands.